George L. Duarte

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Improving Market Index Swells To 125 In November

November 7, 2012 by George Duarte

Improving Market Index 125 MarketsThe U.S. economy continues to improve.

The National Association of Homebuilders released its Improving Markets Index Tuesday. The report attempts to identify U.S. metropolitan areas in which the economy is improving, demonstrating “measurable and sustained growth”.

125 U.S. markets are qualified as “improving” this month, a 22-market jump from the month prior and and all-time high for the index which launched late last year.

Compared to November 2011, this month’s IMI has climbed more than four-fold, rising from last year’s reading of 30. This jump suggests that housing recovery is firmly taking root, helping to generate needed jobs and economic growth across much of the country.

So what qualifies a market as “improving”? The NAHB uses strict criteria.

First, the group gathers data from the three separate, independent sources :

  1. Employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  2. Housing price appreciation from Freddie Mac
  3. Single-family housing permits growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

Next, for each of the above data sets, the National Association of Homebuilders separates for local data in each U.S. major metropolitan area.

And, lastly, armed with data, the NAHB looks for areas in which growth has occurred for all three data points for six consecutive months; and for the most recent “bottom” is at least six months in the past.

In this way, the Improving Market Index doesn’t just measure housing market strength — it measures general economic strength. 

Of the 22 markets added to the Improving Market Index in November, the following cities were included : San Diego, California; Gainesville, Florida; Omaha, Nebraska; Louisville, Kentucky; and Charlotte, North Carolina.

Several markets dropped off the list, too, including Hanford, California; Orlando, Florida; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Greenville, North Carolina.

The complete list of 125 metropolitan areas on November’s IMI, plus breakouts of the metropolitan areas newly added and dropped is available online at http://www.nahb.org/imi.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: IMI, Improving Market Index, NAHB

19 of 20 Case-Shiller Index Markets Improve In August

October 31, 2012 by George Duarte

Case-Shiller Index : Home Prices Between July and August 2012

Home value rose to close out the summer, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Index, a national home-valuation tracker.

Nationwide, values rose 0.9% between July and August 2012 with 19 of 20 tracked markets showing improvement. Only one tracked city — Seattle, Washington — showed a decrease, falling just 0.1 percent.

On an annual basis, 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets improved, led by Phoenix. Home values in the Arizona city are up 18.8 percent from August 2011. The next closest city in terms of home price gains is Detroit, Michigan at 7.6 percent

We should temper our excitement for the August Case-Shiller Index, however. Although it suggests an ongoing U.S. housing recovery, the methodology of the Case-Shiller Index is far-from-perfect. In fact, one could argue that the index is more effective for policy-makers than for actual buyers and sellers of real estate.

There are three reasons for this :

  1. The Case-Shiller Index tracks home prices of single-family homes only. Multi-unit homes are excluded.
  2. The Case-Shiller Index can be distorted by “discounted” home sales (e.g.; foreclosure, short sale).
  3. The Case-Shiller Index publishes on a two-month delay — data is hardly current.

Beyond the above three points, however, the Case-Shiller Index falls short in another area — it ignores the basic tenet of housing that “all real estate is local”. In using 20 cities to represent the entire United States, the Case-Shiller Index reduces more than 3,100 municipalities into a single “market”.

Even within its 20 tracked cities, the Case-Shiller Index fails short as a housing market barometer. This is because — even with cities — home values vary. Some Minneapolis zip codes perform better than others, for example, as do some streets. The Case-Shiller Index can’t capture markets with that level of detail.

National housing data helps in spotting broader trends of growth but provides very little for today’s active buyers and sellers of real estate who need “real-time” data. For that, talk to a local real estate agent.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: Case-Shiller Index, Home Values, Phoenix

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George L. Duarte

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