George L. Duarte

Mortgage Loans Fremont California Horizon Financial Associates

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Case-Shiller: Home Price Growth Slows to 20-Month Low

October 31, 2018 by George Duarte

Case-Shiller Home Price Growth Slows to 20-Month LowHome price growth slowed to its lowest rate in 20 months according to the 20-City Home Price Index issued by Case-Shiller. After years of dismal readings, Las Vegas, Nevada led the cities included in the index.

Top three cities for August included Las Vegas, Nevada where year-over-year home prices grew by 13.90 percent. San Francisco, California saw home prices increase by 10.60 percent year-over-year and Seattle, Washington home prices rose by 9.60 percent year-over-year. August’s 20-City Home Price Index overall reading fell below six percent for the first time in a year.

Cooling Home Price Growth Helps Balance Housing Markets

Cooling home prices have been forecast for months, but August’s reading indicated that home prices have peaked and that current home price growth rates may ease pressure on overheated real estate markets, where high home prices, limited inventories of homes for sale and rising mortgage rates have limited buying opportunities. Home price growth remained above current rates of wage growth and inflation, but slower appreciation of home values will help balance the housing market from an extreme sellers’ market to more moderate market conditions.

Rising Mortgage Rates Not Sole Cause of Easing Home Prices

Dallas Federal Reserve President Robert Kaplan recently said that rising mortgage rates were not the only cause of slowing growth of home prices. Mr. Kaplan said that multiple factors including rising building costs, labor shortages and rising mortgage rates combined to ease record demand for home; Mr. Kaplan said that the Fed is closely monitoring the economy and housing markets and mentioned that he had previously forecast slower housing markets as 2019 approaches.

Recent stock market sell-offs boosted the 10-year Treasury note price, but this momentum appears to be settling. Fixed mortgage rates are connected to yields on 10-year Treasury notes. Yields rise as note prices decline. Mortgage rates rise as the 10-year Treasury yield rises. While nothing is set in stone, this situation indicates that mortgage rates could continue to rise.

Rising mortgage rates and strict mortgage lending requirements have barred home buyers concerned with affordability and less than perfect credit profiles. As prospective home buyers abandon their home searches, demand for homes should ease and may further reduce gains in home prices.

If you are in the market for a new home or interested in refinancing your current property, be sure to contact your trusted mortgage professional to discuss current financing options.

Filed Under: Real Estate Tagged With: Home Sales, Market Trends, Real Estate

Could Fed Interest Rate Hike Help Home Buyers?

October 26, 2018 by George Duarte

Could Fed Interest Rate Hike Help Home BuyersNews of the Federal Reserve hiking interest rates appears to have caused unnecessary panic among people poised to purchase a first home or a larger one for a growing family.

Headlines and news reports that talk about interest rates being at their highest since 2014 can be alarming. Announcements from the Fed that rates would increase four times in 2018 and again in 2019 seems downright scary. After all, isn’t it logical that increased interest rates mean that monthly mortgage payment could be substantially higher?

As it turns out, neither the click-bait headlines about dramatic rate increases or higher monthly premiums are real-life concerns. A thoughtful look at interest rates and rational thinking about homeownership indicates that today’s market could be an excellent time to buy.

Interest Rates Are Not Frighteningly High

Americans have largely come to recognize that the media thrives on scare tactics to get you to tune in or click a link. Stating that interest rates are the highest since 2014 is a fair statement, on its face. But the reality behind the numbers is entirely different if you take a long look at historical rates.

Homebuyers that stepped into the market as the economy began to surge in 2017 did a fine job of positioning themselves. That’s because they took full advantage of tremendously low rates while moving into a stable jobs environment. It’s important to keep in mind that low Fed standards of 1.5 percent had already increased from the historic low.25 percent set in 2008 to stimulate the horrific economy.

As the Great Recession hit, unemployment started its climb to 10 percent in 2009 and things were generally bad. Wonderfully low interest rates were of little use when people were out of work and those who were employed lacked job stability. The Fed’s goal was to gradually increase rates as the economy steadily recovered. The common wisdom was to raise rates to 3 percent by 2020.

But if you look back over rate data from the 1970s until the Great Recession, rates tended to be at 5 percent or higher. The Fed’s reported intentions would likely leave potential homebuyers in a better position than most over the 40-50 years. That’s because the country is in the midst of an economic surge that appears to have legs.

Fed’s Hike Won’t Deter Many Buyers

The Chicken Little’s of the housing sector may be crying the sky is falling, but nothing could be further from the truth. The modest increases planned by the Fed do not substantially change a potential homeowner’s buying power.

For those with a specific monthly mortgage payment window, the rate increase could slightly change the listing price options moving forward. On the other side of the coin, rate hikes tend to flatten or at least slow asking prices. While buyers cull together a down payment, home prices may be slowing. That could prove very beneficial in terms of securing a dream home.

The basic point about the Federal Reserve raising rates is that this should not necessarily be viewed as a negative. The Fed reportedly had a long-term plan that followed alongside our economic recovery. If you compare the current rates against wage increases, low unemployment, and a juggernaut economy, home buyers are in the driver’s seat right now.

Whether you are interested in buying a new property or refinancing your current property, contact your trusted mortgage professional to find out about the current financing options available.

Filed Under: Real Estate Tagged With: Federal Reserve, Market Conditions, Real Estate

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George L. Duarte

MBA, CMC, CMHS
Call 510.377.9059
Fremont, CA

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