What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week - December 26, 2023

The final release of the GDP figures are the last large releases of the year before moving into Q1 of 2024, with the GDP report showing the economy had shown growth — particularly in Q3 with it tapering off by the end of the year. While the growth had been strong, it still was less than expected by analysts, however the final numbers do indicate we are on a track for a soft-landing and with the potential to all-together avoid a potential recession. The only other reports of note were the Personal Spending and PCE Index Prices.

GDP 2023 (Final)
The U.S. economy expanded at a revised 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, a surprising burst of growth that appears to have tapered off at year’s end.

Growth of gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was reduced from a previously reported 5.2% in the government’s third estimate. It was still the biggest increase in GDP in a decade, however, excluding the pandemic years of 2020-21.

Personal Income and Spending
In November, consumer spending experienced a slight increase of 0.2%, indicating a somewhat tempered growth in the U.S. economy. The trend of subdued spending was also observed in October. On a positive note, incomes saw a rise of 0.4% during the same period. This increase in income is noteworthy as it now outpaces inflation.
PCE Index

In November, the U.S. inflation rate, as measured by the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE index, registered a decline for the first time since 2020, signaling a continued easing of price pressures. The year-over-year inflation growth also decelerated, dropping to 2.6% from the previous month’s 2.9%, marking the lowest level since February 2021.

Primary Mortgage Market Survey Index