Last week’s economic reporting was highly focused on inflation, which grew at its fastest pace since 1981. Rising fuel and food prices boosted inflation in the U.S. and abroad; Analysts said the Ukraine War and supply chain problems continued to drive inflation. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

Inflation Hits Highest Level in 41 Years

The government’s Consumer Price Index, which tracks inflation, rose at a month-to-month pace of 1.0 percent in May compared to the expected reading of 0.70 percent and April’s reading of 0.30 percent growth. May’s Core Consumer Price Index, which excludes food and fuel sectors, rose by 0.60 percent month-to-month.

Year-over-year readings for inflation also increased in May as inflation rose by 8.60 percent compared to an expected reading of 

8.30 percent growth that matched April’s reading for year-over-year inflation. The year-over-year core Consumer Price Index rose by 6.0 percent in May compared to expectations of 5.90 percent and April’s year-over-year reading of 6.20 percent growth in consumer prices. Consumers felt the most pain paying higher rents and dealing with rising food and fuel prices. These categories represent a significant portion of household expenses and there was no immediate relief in sight. The Federal Reserve plans to raise its key interest rate range every month as it attempts to slow rapid inflation.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims Rise

Freddie Mac reported higher average mortgage rates last week as rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by 14 basis points to 5.23 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged six basis points higher at 4.38 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages loans were eight basis points higher at 4.12 percent. Discount points for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 0.90 percent and 0.80 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent. Ongoing shortages of available homes and rising materials costs continued boosting home prices and eroding affordability for first-time and moderate-income home buyers.

Initial jobless claims increased last week with 229,000 first-time claims filed compared to the prior week’s reading of 202,000 initial claims filed. Continuing jobless claims were unchanged last week with 1.31 million ongoing claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reports include readings on housing markets, building permits issued, and housing starts. The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee will release its post-meeting statement and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will give a post-meeting press conference. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

Last week’s economic reporting included readings from S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, The Federal Housing Finance Agency on home prices for homes owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and reporting on Construction spending. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims were also released.

S&P Case-Shiller: Home Prices Rise in March, but Affordability May Slow Future Gains

National home prices grew at a year-over-year pace of 20.60 percent in March according to S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index. The 20-City and 10-City Composite Indices also showed continuing growth in home prices, but analysts cautioned that rising home prices and mortgage rates would soon slow gains in home prices.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage nearly doubled year-over-year from 2.75 percent last fall to approximately 5.25 percent currently. Ongoing high demand for homes continues to drive prices up as buyers compete for short supplies of available homes. This continues to create obstacles for first-time and moderate-income home buyers who cannot compete in bidding wars or qualify for mortgages needed to finance inflated home prices.

The 20-City Home Price Index saw Phoenix, Arizona lose its long-held first-place position to Tampa, Florida, which reported a  year-over-year gain of 34.80 percent; Phoenix, Arizona reported year-over-year home price growth of  32.40 percent, and home prices in Miami Florida rose by 32.00 percent.

Craig Lazzara, a Managing Director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said, “Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth of U.S home prices will have to wait at least a month longer.” Analysts expect affordability to slow rapid home price growth as high home prices and mortgage rates erode affordability, but Mr. Lazzara said that there was no way to know exactly when home price growth would start to slow down.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices for single-family homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored enterprises rose by 19.00 percent year-over-year.

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady, Jobless Claims Decline

Freddie Mac reported little change in mortgage rates last week. Rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages averaged 5.09 percent and were one basis point lower; the average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose by one basis point to 4.32 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped by 16 basis points to 4.40 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for fixed-rate mortgages and 0.30 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

New jobless claims fell last week to 200,000 initial claims filed; 211,000 first-time claims were filed in the previous week. Fewer continuing jobless claims were filed last week with 1.31 million ongoing claims filed as compared to the previous week’s reading of 1.34 million continuing jobless claims filed.

The Commerce Department reported slower construction spending in April, with month-to-month growth of 0.20 percent as compared to the March reading of 0.30 percent and the expected reading of 0.50 percent growth.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reporting includes several readings on consumer price inflation and the University of Michigan’s reading on consumer sentiment. Weekly readings on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.