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Case-Shiller, FHFA Post New Records for Home Price Growth S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index rose by 19.80 percent year-over-year in February and was the third-largest pace of home price growth since the National Home Price Index’s inception. The 20-City Home Price Index reported that Phoenix, Arizona held its first-place ranking with year-over-year home price growth of 32.90 percent. Tampa, Florida maintained its second-place standing with year-over-year home price growth of 32.60 percent. Miami, Florida reported year-over-year home price growth of 29.70 percent year-over-year. Home prices rose faster for all 20 cities in February than in January.

Rapid Home Price Growth Expected to Slow as Rising Mortgage Rates Take Hold

All 20 cities included in the 20-City Home Price Index posted double-digit price growth in February, but analysts cautioned that the two-month lag in reporting didn’t accurately reflect current market conditions. Recent data on home sales and mortgage applications indicated that demand for homes is slowing due to affordability challenges caused by rapidly rising home prices and mortgage rates. Economists expect the housing market to cool as would-be home buyers face mortgage qualification and affordability challenges.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director of S&P Dow Jones Indices, said: “The macroeconomic environment is evolving rapidly and may not support extraordinary home-price growth for much longer.” Mr. Lazzara also said that rising mortgage rates have not yet impacted home-price data, but would likely do so soon.

Selma Hepp, a chief deputy economist at CoreLogic, said: “With diminished buying power and mortgage rates pushing above five percent in recent weeks, home- price growth is likely to take a step back in coming months.” Economists generally expect home price growth to slow as sales volume declines.

FHFA Reports Record Home Price Growth in February

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported that home prices rose by 19.40 percent year-over-year; home prices for single-family homes owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 1.10 percent from January to February. FHFA reported higher home prices across all nine census divisions. Home prices grew fastest in the Mountain Division, where home prices rose by 24.30 percent year-over-year in February.

Will Doerner, Ph. D and Supervisory Economist at FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics, said: “House prices rose to a new historical record in February. Acceleration approached twice the monthly rate as seen a year ago. Housing prices continue to rise owing in part to supply constraints.” Rising materials costs, labor, and lot shortages continued to rein in new home construction.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – February 28, 2022 Last week’s economic reporting included readings on home prices from S&P Case-Shiller and the Federal Housing Finance Agency; data on pending home sales and sales of new homes were also released. The University of Michigan released its final February reading on consumer sentiment and weekly reports on average mortgage rates and jobless claims were also published.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: Home Price Growth Expected to Slow in 2022

December readings from S&P Case Shiller suggested a slowing pace of home price growth in 2022 but analysts said that home prices are not expected to decrease. Case-Shiller’s National Home Price Index showed an 18.80 percent increase in home prices year-over-year. S&P Case-Shiller’s 20-City Home Price Index reported that Phoenix, Arizona held on to its first-place standing for home price growth with home prices increasing by 32.50 percent year-over-year. Tampa, Florida home prices rose by 29.40 percent, and the Miami, Florida metro area reported home price growth of 27.30 percent. Analysts expect that home prices will continue to rise, but not at the extreme pace seen in 2021.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees properties owned and financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reported year-over-year home price growth of 17.60 percent as of December. Analysts said that January’s bad weather, rising mortgage rates, and continued impacts of Covid-19 and its variants decreased sales of new homes by 9.30 percent in January. The National Association of Realtors® reported supplies of available homes were in the normal range with a 6.1-month supply of homes available. A six-month supply of available homes is considered an average inventory.

Mortgage Rates, Jobless Claims

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates for fixed-rate mortgages as the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell by three basis points to 3.89 percent; rates for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages dropped one basis point to an average of 3.14 percent. Rates for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages were unchanged at 2.98 percent. Discount points averaged 0.80 percent for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and 0.70 percent for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages averaged 0.30 percent.

Initial jobless claims were lower last week with 232,000 new claims filed as compared to the prior week’s reading of 249,000 initial claims filed. Analysts expected 235,000 new jobless claims to be filed last week. 1.48 million continuing jobless claims were filed last week as compared to the prior week’s reading of 1.59 million continuing jobless claims filed.

What’s Ahead

This week’s scheduled economic reading includes data on construction spending, public and private sector jobs, and the national unemployment rate. Weekly reports on mortgage rates and jobless claims will also be released.

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