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Improving Market Index : Up To 201 Cities For December 2012

December 14, 2012 by George Duarte

December IMI includes 201 citiesLast week’s National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) brought positive news about U.S. housing markets and the broader U.S. economy, in general.

According to the IMI, there are now 201 U.S. markets which can be considered “improving”.

To meet this standard, a local area economy must exhibit at least six consecutive months of improvement in terms of local employment, single-family housing permits and area home prices; and, at least six months must have passed since each of these readings were at their respective low points, called troughs.

The Improving Market Index added 76 metropolitan areas in December as compared to the month prior. 45 states are now represented on the list, in addition to the District of Columbia.

The cities deemed “improving” aren’t limited to recent, high-profile hot spots such as Detroit, Michigan; and Phoenix, Arizona, either. Several of the newly-included areas for December were :

  • Atlanta, Georgia
  • Bloomfield, Illinois
  • Ithaca, New York
  • Riverside, California
  • Seattle, Washington

The geographic diversity of this month’s Improving Market Index suggests a nationwide economic recovery in progress. More jobs, a steady supply of available homes, plus rising home prices helps communities thrive.

Unfortunately, it may also mean less opportunity to buy homes as rock-bottom prices.

As sellers and home builders gain confidence in the economy, it may be more challenging for today’s Fremont buyers to get a “great deal”.  In addition, an improving, post-recession economy will likely lead mortgage rates higher, robbing home buyers of their purchasing power.

Freddie Mac says that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 3.32% nationwide. In a fully-recovered economy, that rate could be 5 percent or higher. The impact on monthly housing payments would be palpable.

The National Association of Homebuilders expects more markets to join the Improving Market Index list through 2013. Today’s home buyers may want to lock in today’s low rates before economic improvement leads mortgage rates higher.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: IMI, Mortgage Rates, NAHB

Improving Market Index Swells To 125 In November

November 7, 2012 by George Duarte

Improving Market Index 125 MarketsThe U.S. economy continues to improve.

The National Association of Homebuilders released its Improving Markets Index Tuesday. The report attempts to identify U.S. metropolitan areas in which the economy is improving, demonstrating “measurable and sustained growth”.

125 U.S. markets are qualified as “improving” this month, a 22-market jump from the month prior and and all-time high for the index which launched late last year.

Compared to November 2011, this month’s IMI has climbed more than four-fold, rising from last year’s reading of 30. This jump suggests that housing recovery is firmly taking root, helping to generate needed jobs and economic growth across much of the country.

So what qualifies a market as “improving”? The NAHB uses strict criteria.

First, the group gathers data from the three separate, independent sources :

  1. Employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
  2. Housing price appreciation from Freddie Mac
  3. Single-family housing permits growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. 

Next, for each of the above data sets, the National Association of Homebuilders separates for local data in each U.S. major metropolitan area.

And, lastly, armed with data, the NAHB looks for areas in which growth has occurred for all three data points for six consecutive months; and for the most recent “bottom” is at least six months in the past.

In this way, the Improving Market Index doesn’t just measure housing market strength — it measures general economic strength. 

Of the 22 markets added to the Improving Market Index in November, the following cities were included : San Diego, California; Gainesville, Florida; Omaha, Nebraska; Louisville, Kentucky; and Charlotte, North Carolina.

Several markets dropped off the list, too, including Hanford, California; Orlando, Florida; Terre Haute, Indiana; and Greenville, North Carolina.

The complete list of 125 metropolitan areas on November’s IMI, plus breakouts of the metropolitan areas newly added and dropped is available online at http://www.nahb.org/imi.

Filed Under: Housing Analysis Tagged With: IMI, Improving Market Index, NAHB

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George L. Duarte

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