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What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 20, 2015

January 20, 2015 by George Duarte

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week January 20 2015Last week’s scheduled economic news was mixed. Job openings increased and jobless claims increased, and consumer sentiment rose. Mortgage rates fell across the board. Labor market conditions improved and consumer prices fell in large part due to decreasing fuel prices. The details:

Labor Market Conditions Index Suggests Stronger Economy, Jobless Claims Jump

Positive labor market ratings continued to show evidence of strengthening economic conditions. The Federal Reserve’s Labor Market Conditions Index rose from November’s revised reading of 5.50 to December’s reading of 6.10. This index measures 19 economic indicators and rose well above its median reading of 1.90. November’s reading was the highest since May.

The Fed does not comment on month-to-month readings for this index. Job openings increased from November’s reading of 4.80 million to December’s reading of 5.00 million in according to the federal government.

Weekly Jobless Claims jumped to 316,000 as compared to the expected reading of 295,000 new claims and the prior week’s reading of 297,000 new jobless claims. Analysts said that some volatility in new unemployment claims are expected in the aftermath of the holiday season and noted that the latest reading was the highest since September.

Mortgage Rates, Retail Sales Fall

Freddie Mac reported lower average rates across the board. The average rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell by seven basis points to 3.66 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage also fell seven basis points to 2.98 percent. The average rate for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped by eight basis points from 2.98 to 2.08 percent.

Discount points for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage were unchanged at 0.60 percent, while average discount points for a 16-year mortgage dropped to 0.50 percent from the prior week’s reading of 0.60 percent. Discount points for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages averaged 0.40 percent as compared to the prior week’s average of 0.50 percent. Lower mortgage rates help increase affordability and support home purchases by first-time and moderate income homebuyers.

Retail Sales for December dropped by -0.90 percent against expectations of -0.20 percent and November’s reading of +0.40 percent. December’s reading for retail sales except autos was lower by-0.10 percent as expected against November’s reading of +0.40 percent.

Last week ended on a positive note with the January reading for the Consumer Sentiment Index beating the expected reading of 95.0 with a reading of 98.20. December’s reading was 93.60.

What’s Ahead

This week’s economic reports include the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, The National Association of Realtors® Existing Home Sales report, FHFA Home Prices and Leading Economic Indicators. Freddie Mac’s mortgage rates reports and weekly jobless claims will be released as usual.

 

Filed Under: Market Outlook Tagged With: Federal Reserve, Freddie Mac, Market Outlook

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 12, 2015

January 12, 2015 by George Duarte

Whats Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week January 12 2015Last week’s economic news was dominated by labor reports and FHA’s announcement that it will lower its mortgage insurance premiums in an effort to make homes more affordable for first-time and moderate income home buyers. Mortgage rates fell last week as employment reports showed strengthening job markets. The details:

FHA Lowers Mortgage Insurance Premiums

HUD, the agency that oversees FHA, announced Thursday that it will lower annual mortgage insurance premiums by0.50 percent. The change is expected to become effective toward the end of January; HUD stated in its press release that a Mortgagee Letter outlining the changes will be issued shortly.

FHA borrowers pay for FHA mortgage insurance in two steps; an upfront mortgage insurance premium is charged at loan closing, and also pay an annual mortgage insurance premium that is pro-rated monthly and added to mortgage payments.

FHA’s annual premiums increased five times since 2010 and rose from a rate of 0.55 percent to 1.35 percent. Analysts estimated that the reduction of annual premiums to a rate of 0.85 percent will attract an additional 250,000 borrowers of FHA backed mortgage loans and save borrowers about $900 a year.

The move was applauded by housing industry advocates such as the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors®, but critics fear that the move could cause a taxpayer bailout if claims on defaulted loans increase.

Under federal law, HUD is required to maintain a specific level of capital reserves for its mortgage insurance program. FHA reserves were depleted during the recession, which caused HUD to raise annual mortgage insurance premiums to replenish its reserves for paying claims on defaulted FHA loans.

Mortgage Rates, Unemployment Rate Drop

Freddie Mac reported that average mortgage rates fell across the board. The rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.73 percent; the average rate for a 15-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.05 percent, a drop of 10 basis points. The average rate for a 5/1 adjustable rate mortgage was 2.98 percent, which was three basis points lower than last week’s average.

Discount points were unchanged at 0.60 percent for 30-year fixed rate mortgages and dropped from 0.60 to 0.50 percent for 15-year mortgages. Discount points were unchanged at 0.50 percent for 5/1 adjustable rate mortgages.

Several labor related reports were released last week. ADP reported that December payrolls for private sector jobs rose by 241,000 jobs in December as compared to November’s reading of 227,000 jobs. The Labor Department’s Nonfarm Payrolls report was lower with a reading of 252,000 jobs added than November’s reading of 353,000 jobs added, but December’s reading exceeded analysts’ expectations of 230,000 jobs added. November’s reading was likely influenced by seasonal hiring.

Weekly jobless claims were lower at 294,000 new claims filed against expectations of 290.000 claims filed and the prior week’s reading of 298,000 new claims filed. The national unemployment rate fell to 5.60 percent against an expected reading of 5.70 percent and November’s reading of 5.80 percent.

While this reading is below the Fed’s target rate of 6.50 percent, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December indicate that Fed policy makers remain concerned about low inflation rates. Falling oil prices were noted as a primary cause of falling inflation. The FOMC also noted slow improvement in housing markets and again cited tight lending standards as a significant cause.

What’s Ahead

Next week’s scheduled economic news releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI, which excludes food and energy. A report on consumer sentiment will also be released in addition to weekly reports on mortgage rates and new jobless claims.

Filed Under: Market Outlook Tagged With: Freddie Mac, HUD, Market Outlook

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George L. Duarte

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